As Trump's probability of winning in the prediction markets declines, the price of BTC has fallen, and volatility has surged significantly. The overnight implied volatility of both BTC and ETH has soared as traders prepare for election results, which could lead to substantial market price fluctuations. The volatility range for BTC is between -8.97% and +9.85%, while ETH's volatility range is between -9.25% and +10.19%. The market sentiment leans bullish.

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Odaily Planet Daily reported that as Trump's winning probability in prediction markets has declined following a series of positive trends in Democratic polls, even dipping below Vice President Harris's odds on the U.S. regulatory market Kalshi, the price of BTC has fallen, and volatility has surged significantly.

According to analysis by Nick Forster, founder of Derive.xyz (formerly Lyra), the overnight forward volatility of BTC and ETH has skyrocketed, with BTC's volatility currently at 80.30%, up from 72.20%, and ETH's volatility currently at 82.92%, up from 75.40%.

"This increase reflects that traders are preparing for election results that could significantly impact market prices," Forster predicts a two-thirds chance of substantial price volatility on election night, stating, "BTC's volatility range is between -8.97% and +9.85%, while ETH's volatility range is slightly larger, between -9.25% and +10.19%."

He noted, "The total open interest in BTC call options is 1,179 contracts, while the total open interest in put options is 885 contracts, clearly indicating that despite potential volatility, the market still leans bullish." (The Block)

Traders Prepare for the U.S. Election as BTC and ETH Volatility Significantly Increases