Bitcoin's price has been struggling, with a significant drop from $63.8K to $57K in early July, marking a 9% decline and continuing a trend of sideways movement. Charles Edwards of Capriole Investments attributes this downturn to key players like BTC miners, ETFs, and long-term holders dumping substantial amounts of Bitcoin. According to Edwards, around 374K BTC, valued over $20 billion, has been sold off. Adjustments in the long-term holder metric and Grayscale's GBTC outflows further indicate a total of $18 billion in Bitcoin outflows. This selling pressure is corroborated by fluctuating ETF flows and a profitability crisis among Bitcoin miners, which could delay any potential bullish reversal for Bitcoin.

After peaking at $63.8K on 1st July, Bitcoin [BTC] has weakened and dropped to a low of $57K on 4th July. That was a 9% decline in July and marked the fourth consecutive month of sideways movement since Q2. What’s causing the plunge?Charles Edwards, founder of crypto hedge fund Capriole Investments, claimed that the weakening BTC was partly due to ‘key players’ dumping holdings. Edwards’ perspective was based on demand and supply from BTC miners, ETFs, and long-term holders (LTH). Based on these three entities, about 374K BTC, worth above $20 billion, has been dumped in the market, per Edwards. When the LTH metric was adjusted from +2 years to 155 days, the net outflow was about—$40 billion, per Edwards. Additionally, when Grayscale’s GBTC outflows are factored in and removed, the overall dump across the three entities amounted to $18 billion worth of BTC outflow. AMBCrypto’s evaluation spot BTC ETF flows revealed that net flows fluctuated considerably in Q2, unlike the steady positive flows recorded in Q1. The stagnating demand from ETFs, thus, corroborated Edwards’ thesis. Another key entity mentioned in the analysis, BTC miners, was still deep in a profitability crisis after the halving event. As a result, struggling miners could dump more of their BTC holdings to stay afloat. The miner crisis could further delay the bullish reversal for the largest digital asset, noted Willy Woo. For perspective, the Bitcoin Hash Ribbons are moving averages that signal when hash rates drop, specifically during miners’ profitability crises. Although they also historically signaled a market bottom, the metric has yet to recover and further reinforce BTC’s weakening market structure. 

Bitcoin Struggles as Key Players Dump Holdings, Price Recovery at Risk