SpaceX Index Inclusion and Lock-Up Schedule Estimates

Estimates for SpaceX’s post-IPO index inclusion and lock-up schedule show that, assuming a June 12, 2026 IPO and a post-listing market cap of $2 trillion, the company could be announced for fast-track inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 on June 26, with implementation on July 6. Its initial weight is estimated at about 1.27%, implying roughly $10.2 billion to $12.7 billion of passive inflows.

For Russell U.S. indexes, SpaceX is expected to be added after the close on June 26 alongside the semiannual reconstitution. Its estimated weights in the Russell 1000 and Russell 1000 Growth are about 0.14% and 0.27%, respectively, implying combined passive inflows of around $1.1 billion.

On lock-up expirations, total potential share releases are estimated at about 6.42 billion shares, including 4.69 billion shares from the 180-day lock-up pool and 1.76 billion shares held by certain shareholders. About 638.9 million shares are expected to be released on the IPO date, followed by 911.5 million shares around late June and 455.8 million shares around late July. The largest single release is expected after SpaceX’s 2026 third-quarter earnings, at about 1.3 billion shares. Actual outcomes remain subject to final IPO size, greenshoe exercise, share-price performance and index-provider announcements.